I know this is a bike forum and not the place for politics or science but I thought a few of you might be interested in this in light of the Fukushima damaged reactors and controversy about the risk and specifically if the Moto GP should go ahead. It fascinated me but then as has been pointed out before perhaps I should get out more.

I have just finished reading two long term studies of the exclusion zones round the Chernobyl site. It’s been 25 years now, plenty of time for any effects of the contamination to have had its effects amongst rapidly reproducing biological organisms. It is worth bearing in mind that this reactor was running close to flat out when it blew (all the Fukushima reactors were scrammed) and the level of contamination was much greater (more than a factor of ten) and also included elements and isotopes considered more toxic to living organisms than those scattered in Fufushima.

One study was by Tim Mousseau and the other by Jim Smith, both well qualified scientists. Both looked at the most heavily contaminated areas where no decontamination work had been carried out and where measured contamination was many many times above the safe levels set by the IAEA.

The study by Jim focused on fast breeding small mammals where a large number of generations would have been born, lived, bread and died in this environment. Things like field mice and similar animals. They were looking for any genetic abnormalities, any biological issues, population health, life span etc to see what measurable effects living in the most hazardous areas had had with a view to establishing likely effects on humans. The results...... There were no measurable differences at all between the Chernobyl populations and similar populations elsewhere. Whatever they looked at was quite completely normal. When the study was widened to include insects and plants they again found no detectable effects at all. This after 25 years in the areas of highest contamination.

The study by Tim looked at population densities and this did seem to show a lowering of overall bird / insect populations across the areas although the direct linkage to the radiation contamination is unclear. They also claimed that bird brain size was measurable decreased although again this seemed to be over both clean and contaminated areas so I don’t think a causal effect was established.
The more actual research I read about the measured effects of low level radiation exposure the more confused I become as to why we are all so afraid. Of course in high levels it’s lethal (so is heat) but there seems to be almost no evidence at all that below a certain level (which is much higher than even Chernobyl produced in the local area) there are any measurable toxic effects at all.
You probably generate a higher theoretical risk from radiation on the flight to Japan than you would get from lining at the Jap GP circuit for a year. These are risk taking on the edge Moto GP riders, it can only be ignorance that keeps them away as the risk is nonexistent from Fukushima!!

Nice piece.......you would also think that in the only country in the world where nuclear weapons have been used in anger, that the long term effects of radiation expsoure would be well documented

I did think Casey Stoners statement

'' My future in motorcycle racing doesnt't go on for as long as the rest of my life...and I' m more worried about that'

a very strange statement to make by a man who competes in one of the most dangerous motor sports there is ....er do think somebody should tell him........

.

I just love the fact that he has already decided not to go, without waiting for independent results, or even the official Dorna ruling.

If he had some independent evidence to say the area or track was inherently dangerous, then maybe I'd understand, but he's just being Stoner the Moaner again.

What a knob. I hope the rest go, while he and Lorenzo sit the race out and lose points.

I was wondering just how radioactive Nagasaki and Hiroshima sites still are ..yet no mention or worries about visting (The radiation 'Half Life' is measured in thousands of years....it will take some time yet)

His life may go on beyond racing, but judging by his personality it'll be what he achieves as a racer (on and off track) that defines the rest of his life, so what he says and does now matters well into his future.

At the end of the day nothing is safe - not even fyling to Japan on a plane, and certainly not racing in motoGP. Regardless, Stoner needs to check the evidence for any genuine concerns before he speaks, and then MTFU.

As taken from Fast Bike Mag "Racing News"

The FIM have done a report

“Based on the estimate dose it can be said by no doubt that the radiation risk during the race event is negligible.” So says the official FIM report. So, will the ‘stars’ man up and get on with it – or will we see a mass boycott of the round by the riders? Time will tell.

"The above mentioned weekly dose is in line with the average world natural sources dose of about
46μSv, obtained by the yearly average dose of 2.4mSv (Unscear 2000).
Based on the estimate dose it can be said by no doubt that the radiation risk during the race event is
negligible.
Written in Motegi on July 22nd, 2011."

I'll get the popcorn out shall I?

Shadowman, thanks for a few informative and interesting posts there.

I hope Hiroshima levels are low, I've spent 2 days there, 1 mostly wandering around the ground zero (under air zero?) point and viewing the museum etc they have now.

Radiation inspires fear very easily. I often have problems getting permission to work above decks on live transmitting radars.
I have to explain that all the time the array is spinning there really is no RF risk - if the arrays stops and the beam is "lingering" on the same azimuth that's when there is a hazard. (Our transmitters have a safety interlock that stops TX if the array stops turning, I can over-ride that for diagnostics.)

I also point out I'm more at risk by getting tw@ed 'round the head by a spinning S band array.

Fooked if I would Go.
Fukushima is only about 80 miles from Motegi. They still have no control over these damaged reactors that are still emitting radiation into the atmosphere. Would be real nice to get rained on from clouds that have traveled across the area

Last I heard was that 15 of the 17 Moto GP riders had suggested that they might boycott the Japan GP, it was only Stoner and Lorenzo that had the balls to go on record with there opinions.

Nice piece shadow man - I agree entirely with your broad argument but it might be useful to point up some cases of GI's and UK servicemen who suffered badly having been exposed to nuke blasts, also the US actor John Wayne who ingested some nuke material while filming near test sites in the US desert and contracted stomach cancer.
Different circumstances I appreciate - and I'm sure you're better placed than I to explain it, but, for some, the perceived risks are just too high, and I count myself among them.

S

We should be flattered that we have so many nuclear physicists on the site.!

I previously worked as a wireline borehole logger using different radioactive sources, Cobalt-60 (gamma radiation source) Americium-241 (Alpha and neutron source) and Caesium-137 (Gamma source) on a daily basis. Lack of education on radioactivity results in the majority of the population being extremely wary (scared) of it.
Scientists have not helped in their prediction on the outcomes of Chernobyl. Around 32 people died from heat or radiation injuries at the time of the incident and there has been a increase in thyroid cancer in children in the directly affected area but there has not been an increase in in the predicted leukaemia levels.
What did occur was that the psychological impact from the fear of radiation. In the two years following Chernobyl, 100 000-200 000 women in northern Europe aborted their unborn babies due to fear of mutations.
Hiroshima and Nagasaki blast resulted in increased birth defects from direct radiation or fallout whilst in the womb but studies have revealed no increase in the future generations.
At the very worst ,due to the distance from Fukashima, people in the Montegi area would be exposed to the stochastic effects of radiation, which is increased exposure over a long period, basically two fifths of sweet fudge all. Current background radiation in the Montegi area is lower than Pakistan, Hong Kong and Aberdeen (lots of granite buildings).
Inverse square law applies to radiation, double your distance, quarter your exposure.
If you are really worried about it, dont climb mountains, dont get in a plane, dont ever break any bones and if you are a whiney little Aussie (shame) dont bloody ride a bike........YOU MIGHT GET HURT.

[quote="scamb66"]Scientists have not helped in their prediction on the outcomes of Chernobyl. Around 32 people died from heat or radiation injuries at the time of the incident and there has been a increase in thyroid cancer in children in the directly affected area but there has not been an increase in in the predicted leukaemia levels.
What did occur was that the psychological impact from the fear of radiation. In the two years following Chernobyl, 100 000-200 000 women in northern Europe aborted their unborn babies due to fear of mutations.
Hiroshima and Nagasaki blast resulted in increased birth defects from direct radiation or fallout whilst in the womb but studies have revealed no increase in the future generations.
quote]

Not to mention increases in alcholism, drug use, depression and similar social effects resulting from the dislocation and not the radiation itself. Even the big majority of the thyroid issues could have been avoided with the timely distribution of Iodine tablets.

"We have nothing to fear but fear itself" not made for this situation exactly but not far off either!

As of yesterday, they're saying the japan MotoGP is ON.
http://www.motogp.com/en/news/2011/fim+ ... bout+japan

Now let's wait for Jorge and Stoner to do a U-Turn, so we can slag them off for being unprincipled, ....or they miss the race as promised, so we can slag them off for being wimps, disrespecting the Japanese people (and the home of Honda & Yamaha, who pay thier mortgages), while losing championship points.

Happy days. LOL.

one thing that I pay very little attention to is statistics these days... the only thing that I really learned is that you can make the stats look however you want while still being correct.

if you want something to seem safe, you can, dangerous... too easy. It all comes down to who pays for the tests and stats to be done.

That being said, being there for a weekend probably is not that bad. And you have to remember... these guys ride at stupidly fast speeds... chances are their logical side of the brain is not quite as developed.. hence radiation=terribly bad to them

Great initial post. I enjoyed reading it and have loved some of the photos from the Chernobyl area - not to mention playing in a version on COD!
Does that mean that I can plan a trip there? I would just f*cking love to ride an enduro bike though some of those ruins and vehicle parks.

Only one concern:
As usual Casey Stoner has been misunderstood/misrepresented!
When he said: '' My future in motorcycle racing doesnt't go on for as long as the rest of my life...and I' m more worried about that"
He was supporting the decision to go to Motegi not saying he didn't want to go. He was saying he was more worried about the fact he has no idea what he will do after motorcycle racing than any residual radiation he might pick up. After all it was his team that made the point that you get more exposure traveling at high altitude after some of the Pramac guys started whining.

I'm not a Stoner fan (I don't subscribe to the personality cult thing) although I do admire the way he rides a bike. What bothers me is the slightly hysterical attacks he gets from some people the moment he opens his mouth.

you are correct about everything you have said... however some things tend to be more politically biased than others... it is those things that i take as a grain of salt.

tbh i have not looked at the radiation levels of japan but it doesnt concern me as I have no intention of going there (however it is sad)

If memory serves me, and it rarely serves what I like. There was a cancellation of a race last year. I could look it up but am lazy, I believe it was Motegi. It was due to a valcanoe spewing forth ash and it created a health risk for planes to fly in and amongst the plume. Something about sucking ash and causing engines to breakdown. It was considered extremely low a possibilty, but for the health safety and welfare of crews and riders the round was cancelled. Mum's the word win it comes to recieving what you want and unsafe is the word when it comes to what you dont want. A boss once said to me that there was no evidence that you could contract AIDS from sitting on a toilet seat that had just been used by someone who had contracted the disease, but he would shit his own britches before he would walk into that stall. I think that many individuals have spent most of thier lives being shovelled a load of crap from anyone with a mission of exploitation. It wears a person down and takes them to defences they would have reserverd for less believable postulations. Ready to Race comes to mind.
Is it safe? only Marathon Man knows for sure.

Lets be serious.....I was so convinced that I would not make thirty (or old bones as my Gran would have said)….. that I made no plans for old age (Far to many glorious summers have been and gone since I past that deadline) .......why was I so convinced...my passion is riding motor bikes...I am a Very lucky realist, so do not kid yourselves….our passion is probably the most dangerous thing we do in this life………by far….…yet if we were truly worried about our mortality…we would give it up…..I personally live to ride….and I am genuinely surprised to be living with ‘Old Bones’…………I can only imagine how wonderful it would be, to be paid vast sums of money to ride the best bikes in the world….I can only dream…………………………………………………so man up for F”*ks sake

I saw some program the other night about Chernobyl. It was basically saying what a crock of shite it is about how mother nature has recovered and there is nature flourishing everywhere. They were walking around the place and the geiger counters were going nuts and there was virtually no life apart from plants.

so i see there's another stoner bashing thread on the go eh......
Whether his opinion on the safety of motegi is correct or not i can respect his decision (if in fact he has made a decision) on whether to go or not, for me it's good to see someone with the stones (get it? ) to stand up for ones self in the face of pressure from peers, sponsors, teams, ruling bodies etc. i don't get how you lot crucify the man for having an opinion, you lot spew forth yours with indignation, why can't he?
as for him riding moto gp and it being dangerous, well, it's his occupation, and while some of us do extremely dangerous work we do it day in and day out confident we're going home safe because of our training, experience, and the safety precautions put in place by WH&S etc. same for stoner and his fellow competitors.
I wonder how much financial pressure there is on the motogp circus to attend motegi, and what possible other reasons there may be for those saying it's safe, studies on radiation levels today are only valid for today, there's no guarantee the reactors are stable, who's to say they can't/won't degenerate further, you can't rely on the japanese to be forthright, they grossly underestimated the extent of the danger when it was happening.

paul

if it looks like he needs the points, yep, i agree with you, he will be there.